Michael’s Blog

There are many definitions of “handicapping” but Wikipedia states:
Handicapping, in sport and games, is the practice of assigning advantage through scoring compensation or other advantage given to different contestants to equalize the chances of winning.

I’m sure with the best of intentions the organizers of The Targa Newfoundland have, for the last 7 years, used a system of “Targa Factors” or handicaps in an effort to give every entrant a chance of winning the coveted Christos Targa Award, which is presented to the overall winner

Obviously in the early days of the event assigning appropriate handicaps, or for that matter even establishing classes, was by necessity a very “hit and miss” exercise. I understand that the organizers based their system on that in use in Targa Tasmania and applied “local content” as required but exactly how these factors are calculated is something of a mystery.

It seems to me, that with seven events now completed sufficient data has been accumulated to assign handicaps based upon actual performances and by so doing the real aim of a handicapping system could be achieved.

There are several sports which use handicapping but the best known is golf wherein handicaps are assigned by calculating an individual competitors playing ability from his recent history of rounds with the intention of giving every competitor an equal chance of winning. I thought I would try to apply this method of handicapping to Targa.
The results are very interesting and go a long way toward explaining why there have only ever been three Modern Division cars in the top three placings at Targa Newfoundland in seven years of competition.

The method that I used to establish the “results based” handicap is explained below***.

In the five days of competition the fastest cars take around 180 minutes to traverse all the stages and the following list shows the difference between the two handicapping systems expressed in minutes in 180 minutes.

Just to be clear this list shows the disadvantage that the current system applies to each class of car.

Class 3 Standard Large Capacity 0.0 minutes

Class 4 Modified Large Capacity 3.3 minutes

Class 6 Modified Large Capacity 5.8 minutes

Class 4 Modified Small Capacity 6.7 minutes

Class 9 Standard large Capacity 7.2 minutes

Calss 3 Modified Small Capacity 8.6 minutes

Class 8 Modified Large Capacity 11.0 minutes

Class 5 Modified Large Capacity 11.0 minutes

Class 7 Standard Large Capacity 11.3 minutes

Class 9 Standard Small Capacity 11.6 minutes

Class 5 Modified small Capacity 12.1 minutes

Class 5 Standard large Capacity 12.1 minutes

Class 2 Standard large Capacity 12.1 minutes

Class 9 Modified Large Capacity 13.9 minutes

Class 4 Standard Large Capacity 14.1 minutes

Class 8 Standard large Capacity 14.8 minutes

Class 2 Modified Small Capacity 16.1 minutes

Class 1 Unlimited 16.5 minutes

Class 5 Standard Small Capacity 16.7 minutes

Class 7 Modified Small Capacity 17.3 minutes

Class 2 Modified Large Capacity 22.2 minutes

Class 7 Modified Large Capacity 28.7 minutes

Class 8 modified Small Capacity 37.4 minutes

Class 9 Modified Small Capacity 44.6 minutes

Class 6 Standard Small Capacity 47.0 minutes

As I mentioned above, the results are very interesting.

For example, under the current Targa Factor system, the minimum Modern Class disadvantage is 7 minutes and 12 seconds  when compared to a Class 3 Standard Large Capacity car. It is hardly surprising that in seven years of competition Modern Class cars have only ever placed 2nd once and 3rd twice.

*** Methodology

In my study I have used stages for 2005, 06, 07, and 08 where 10 or less competing cars “cleaned” the stage to minimize situations where a competing team “backs off” to save their car when they have plenty of time in hand.

From those stages I have taken the fastest car in each of the competing classes and compared its time to that of the fastest car through the stage. By dividing the competitor’s time by that of the fastest car I was able to establish a factor for each car for each of these stages.

Once all these factors were calculated I eliminated the fastest (smallest factor numerically) and the 3 slowest (largest factors numerically) for each car (to eradicate miracles and “screw-up’s’) and then averaged the remaining factors.

Using this method establishes a factor for each class within which there has been a competitor since 2005 and from this a true “Results Based” handicap system can be developed.

Targa Newfoundland Forum discussion on this subject can be found here:

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